Ebola Hysteria: A Reality Check in the Midst of Media Mayhem

Dear Scared Citizen,

I understand your anxiety about Ebola crossing the Atlantic. The doomsday scenarios portrayed in movies like 12 Monkeys (a personal favorite, by the way) certainly don't help. And with a remake airing soon on the SyFy channel (remember, "fy" stands for fantasy!), it's easy to get caught up in the hype.

We've been worried about Ebola for a while now. Even North Korea has chimed in, accusing the US of creating the virus. Meanwhile, the epidemic continues to ravage parts of Africa, with the death toll tragically climbing.

As a molecular biologist, I suppose I should be flattered to be considered a potential co-conspirator in this global crisis. But in reality, I'm just as bewildered by the hysteria as everyone else.

The fact that the National Institutes of Health (NIH), located just a mile from my home, has treated Ebola patients understandably raises concerns. People have asked me how I feel about it, and honestly, my delayed response probably reflects my level of worry. Considering that the first patient who slipped through the screening process traveled on two airplanes with over 100 people, touching and interacting with numerous individuals without infecting anyone, I remain relatively calm.

What's truly concerning is that the only people who contracted Ebola in the US were the nurses caring for the infected patient. The very institutions designed to protect public health seem to be the most vulnerable. This reinforces the age-old fear of hospitals: "I'm not going there because I'll get sick."

While we might dismiss such comments in the context of Ebola, consider the flu. It kills tens of thousands of people every year, spreading easily in vulnerable populations. And then there's the anti-vaccination movement... but that's a whole other story.

The point is, while Ebola is a serious disease, the level of fear and panic is disproportionate to the actual risk, especially in developed countries with robust healthcare systems.

¹ Let's focus on supporting healthcare workers, improving protocols, and addressing the root causes of the epidemic in Africa, rather than succumbing to irrational fearmongering.

Harry Seldon said... The Power of Prediction: Psychohistory, Prophecy, and the Puppet Masters of Our World

I love science fiction, and I've recently learned to appreciate fantasy as well. While some might argue that science fiction sticks to plausible scenarios within the laws of physics and avoids the supernatural—leaving the supernatural to fantasy—I believe the lines are often blurred.

This post was inspired by the opening chapters of Isaac Asimov's Prelude to Foundation, where Hari Seldon meets Emperor Cleon I. Seldon introduces the concept of psychohistory, a science combining mathematics and sociology to predict the long-term behavior of human societies. The goal? To anticipate and mitigate societal downfalls, ensuring the continuity of civilization.

Psychohistory operates similarly to quantum physics, which can statistically predict the behavior of particles, like electrons, but not the exact location of a single particle. Cleon, however, is more interested in his individual future and legacy. He envisions using Seldon's science to create a self-fulfilling prophecy, a prediction where everything goes well for the Empire and, more importantly, for himself.

Cleon understands that people tend to trust authority figures (and a sophisticated scientist with formulas certainly fits the bill). If an authority figure predicts a positive future, people are more likely to act in ways that align with that prediction, increasing the odds of it coming true.

Seldon's psychohistory, on the other hand, keeps its predictions secret from the general population for this very reason. If people know the odds of the future, they might work against those predictions, rendering the calculations obsolete. The "particles" of society would change their behavior due to the prediction, making it useless (similar to how the act of measuring the temperature of water changes the water's temperature). Therefore, psychohistory remains shrouded in secrecy, accessible only to an elite few, all for the sake of humanity's survival.

This brings us to an intriguing question: If wise minds throughout history (philosophers, politicians, writers) have considered the issue of human survival, isn't it possible that some of them, especially those with wealth and influence, might have taken steps to ensure it? This is where conspiracy theorists would jump for joy, shouting "Hallelujah!" We're talking about the possibility of hidden figures, all-knowing and incredibly influential, pulling the strings of humanity—puppet masters!