Harry Seldon said... The Power of Prediction: Psychohistory, Prophecy, and the Puppet Masters of Our World

I love science fiction, and I've recently learned to appreciate fantasy as well. While some might argue that science fiction sticks to plausible scenarios within the laws of physics and avoids the supernatural—leaving the supernatural to fantasy—I believe the lines are often blurred.

This post was inspired by the opening chapters of Isaac Asimov's Prelude to Foundation, where Hari Seldon meets Emperor Cleon I. Seldon introduces the concept of psychohistory, a science combining mathematics and sociology to predict the long-term behavior of human societies. The goal? To anticipate and mitigate societal downfalls, ensuring the continuity of civilization.

Psychohistory operates similarly to quantum physics, which can statistically predict the behavior of particles, like electrons, but not the exact location of a single particle. Cleon, however, is more interested in his individual future and legacy. He envisions using Seldon's science to create a self-fulfilling prophecy, a prediction where everything goes well for the Empire and, more importantly, for himself.

Cleon understands that people tend to trust authority figures (and a sophisticated scientist with formulas certainly fits the bill). If an authority figure predicts a positive future, people are more likely to act in ways that align with that prediction, increasing the odds of it coming true.

Seldon's psychohistory, on the other hand, keeps its predictions secret from the general population for this very reason. If people know the odds of the future, they might work against those predictions, rendering the calculations obsolete. The "particles" of society would change their behavior due to the prediction, making it useless (similar to how the act of measuring the temperature of water changes the water's temperature). Therefore, psychohistory remains shrouded in secrecy, accessible only to an elite few, all for the sake of humanity's survival.

This brings us to an intriguing question: If wise minds throughout history (philosophers, politicians, writers) have considered the issue of human survival, isn't it possible that some of them, especially those with wealth and influence, might have taken steps to ensure it? This is where conspiracy theorists would jump for joy, shouting "Hallelujah!" We're talking about the possibility of hidden figures, all-knowing and incredibly influential, pulling the strings of humanity—puppet masters!

The End of an Era: Reflecting on the Space Shuttle Program and the Future of Space Exploration

The Space Shuttle era has come to an end, a bittersweet moment, especially for those of us who grew up with it. I still remember the excitement after the first flight in 1981. Space enthusiasts predicted that by the year 2000, space travel would be commonplace. Back then, during the "socialist darkness" (as we were told), the Space Shuttle became a symbol—almost like blue jeans—of capitalist expansion.

Smithsonian Castle with 747/Discovery overhead.

Seven years later, the Soviet Union responded with the Buran, a remarkably similar spacecraft. There was hope that socialist ideals might catch up, that the space race would continue. However, after its first and only flight, the Russians, recognizing the immense cost, canceled the Buran program. Now, almost 25 years later, the same fate has befallen the Space Shuttle program. 

While it's sad to see the shuttle program end, I believe that privatization is the future of space exploration. Where there is ambition and a drive for profit, there is also innovation. Let's welcome this new era of private space exploration and see where it takes us.

Capitol Building with 747/Discovery overhead - Farewell Party for Space Shuttle at the Mall.

NASA 747 with Discovery over the National Mall - Goose chasing the Shuttle.

Ancient Civilizations, Human Sacrifice, and Our Modern Energy Crisis: A Surprising Connection

I've realized how much I miss by skipping commercials and watching mostly pre-recorded shows. Yesterday, while watching Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (not exactly my favorite Indy flick) on cable, I did some channel surfing during the ad breaks. That's when I stumbled upon the "Wealth" channel (channel 669 on FIOS).

I've come across this channel before, and like last time, I was drawn in by the content, not the flashy lifestyle choices or (as my wife would say) the "beautiful anchors." The topic? Ancient civilizations of Mesoamerica – the Inca, Aztec, and Maya. I was struck by how many of their challenges and crises mirror our own, particularly when it comes to energy.

The Aztec practice of human sacrifice, though horrifying, offers a chilling parallel. It makes me wonder if what we do today to maintain our civilization's status quo (wars in the Middle East, for example) isn't a modern form of human sacrifice.

The Aztecs, influenced by earlier cultures, believed that the gods had sacrificed themselves to create and sustain the sun. They reasoned that human life force was needed to maintain the sun's energy, ensuring good harvests and a thriving society. To appease the sun god, they performed ritualistic heart removals, primarily from prisoners of war, criminals, and sometimes even political opponents.

As the Aztec empire grew, so did the "energy demand." There are accounts of massive sacrifices, with some claiming 84,000 victims during a single four-day celebration. Experts now believe that such a large-scale undertaking would have been logistically impossible, suggesting a more realistic figure of around 2,000. Regardless of the actual number, the perceived need for these sacrifices fueled constant warfare and expansion, as internal resources dwindled and citizens understandably feared being chosen as offerings when the sun was hidden behind clouds. This expansion, in turn, created more unrest, necessitating further expansion—a vicious cycle.

Another fascinating detail: Ancient Mesoamerican civilizations lacked draft animals (except perhaps llamas in South America) and, consequently, the wheel and carriage. They relied heavily on human labor for transportation and communication. This meant they needed simpler roads with less maintenance. These roads, some stretching for thousands of miles, still exist today. They even had built latrines every 15 miles – talk about infrastructure!

Friday 13th, 2012.... The Costco Run and the Great Grocery Debate: Fresh vs. Frozen, Waste vs. Efficiency

My recent trip to Costco got me thinking about something I often ponder: the best way to approach grocery shopping. It's hard not to consider stocking up a bit, especially with thoughts of uncertain times. But beyond that, I genuinely believe that a big bi-weekly shopping trip is more economical than daily store runs. Buying in bulk saves money, reduces gas consumption, and, perhaps most importantly, saves time.

Then there's the question of freshness. Unless you're a regular at the farmers market (and let's be honest, how many of us are?), I'm not convinced that the produce at the local supermarket is significantly fresher than what you can find at a warehouse club like Costco.

What really bothers me about supermarkets is the sheer volume of food waste. So much produce makes it to the shelves only to end up in the trash. It's truly disheartening to think of all those fruits and vegetables going to waste, and I often wonder where it all ends up.

This has led me to consider frozen produce as a viable alternative. While freezing requires energy, the food is ultimately used rather than wasted. Fresh produce, on the other hand, also consumes energy for storage and often ends up as waste. Plus, supermarkets often rely on chemicals to extend the shelf life of their produce, which is another concern.

Perhaps the ideal solution is a combination of frozen (for convenience and minimizing waste) and locally sourced (for freshness and supporting local farmers). What are your thoughts on this? How do you approach your grocery shopping? I'd love to hear your perspectives in the comments.

Is This Thing On? Re-Starting My Blog After a Break (and Why Your Feedback Matters)

Ever find yourself wondering if it's really worth it? I do, especially when it comes to blogging. I often struggle with the question: "Do I have anything valuable to say?" My personal motto is, "If you have nothing to say, say nothing." But even saying something worthwhile takes practice. And after a lovely, much-needed vacation, I'm facing that blank page (or screen) once again.

The thing is, I've learned that writing helps me clarify my thoughts. It's like my brain works best when I'm putting words down. So, even if I'm not sure where this post is going, I'm going to start typing.

Brainstorming is key, right? And even more important than brainstorming alone is getting feedback. That's where you come in! I'm hoping this post, this re-start after my break, will spark some conversation. I'm looking for fresh perspectives, new angles on old ideas, and maybe even some completely new ideas.

So, bear with me as I try to organize my post-vacation thoughts. Let's see where this goes! What are your thoughts on [mention a general topic you plan to cover in future posts, or a theme for your blog]? I'm eager to hear from you in the comments..