Harry Seldon Said II: Psychohistory and the Paradox of Control: Is Freedom Compatible with Long-Term Survival?

In my previous post, "H.S. Said I," I explored Hari Seldon's psychohistory and its implications for predicting the future. One crucial aspect of this science is the requirement for subjects (people) to behave randomly, exercising free will without knowledge of the prophecy. Only then can accurate predictions be made. This implies that any form of "single direction" influence, like a dictatorship, must be prevented. Democracy, in some form, becomes a necessity, as strong centralized power inevitably breeds strong opposition.

This also suggests that religious influence is an unwanted interference, hence the need for a separation of church and state. The unpredictable and often violent outcomes of religious clashes throughout history highlight the need for a more coherent and unified society for psychohistory to work effectively.

But if individual free will and a lack of centralized control are essential for accurate predictions, what good is psychohistory in the first place? What's the point of predicting the future if you can't directly influence it?

The first and most obvious reason is the preservation of humankind. The past few millennia of human history paint a rather violent picture. For the last 60 years, we've teetered on the brink of nuclear annihilation. Even with two decades of denuclearization efforts, there are still enough weapons to wipe out most life on Earth (though bacteria and some resilient insects might be the ultimate winners). Preventing such catastrophic fluctuations would be a significant step towards ensuring humanity's survival.

The second reason is more complex and perhaps unsettling: control. If we assume that there's a "wise man" behind the scenes, subtly guiding humanity and preventing our self-destruction, then psychohistory becomes a tool for control, albeit with benevolent intentions. This, of course, opens the door to countless conspiracy theories about hidden agendas and the loss of individual freedom. Even if Hari Seldon's intentions are noble, who controls the controller?

This leads to another intriguing question, one that I'll explore in my next post...

The Irish Potato Famine: A Stark Reminder of the Dangers of Over-Reliance on a Single Food Source

My recent post about the potato's role in fueling the Industrial Revolution prompted me to delve into the tragic history of the Irish Potato Famine. It seems that we humans often need a powerful wake-up call to change our ways.

In the 1740s, a severe climatic disaster, with unusually cold and prolonged weather, led to devastating potato and oat harvests in Ireland. These crops were the primary source of calories for the Irish population at the time. The combination of food scarcity and harsh weather resulted in the deaths of an estimated 30% of the Irish population.

It took Ireland years to recover from this catastrophe. Sadly, history repeated itself a century later with the Great Irish Potato Famine. This time, the culprit was potato blight, a disease that ravaged potato crops. Approximately 10-15% of the Irish population perished, and a similar number emigrated, many to the New World. This influx of cheap labor arguably fueled industrial growth in the Americas (perhaps thanks, in part, to the potato's earlier contribution to the Industrial Revolution).

These tragic events underscore the dangers of over-reliance on a single food source, a lesson that extends beyond agriculture. As mentioned in my earlier post about human sacrifice by the Aztecs, dependence on limited energy sources can have dire consequences. This isn't just a story about oil and our current techno-society; it's a recurring theme throughout human history.

The Humble Spud: How the Potato Fueled the Industrial Revolution and Shaped Western Civilization

I love exploring Wikipedia. It's a treasure trove of information, always sparking my curiosity and leading me down unexpected paths. Recently, I've been researching low-carbohydrate diets, which naturally led me to investigate various carbohydrate sources (a topic for another post!). That's how I stumbled upon the fascinating history of the potato.

In Eastern Slovakia, where I have roots, the potato has been a staple food since its introduction. It replaced crops that had been cultivated for centuries, and for good reason. According to Wikipedia, potatoes can yield four times more calories per acre than grains.

This simple fact had a profound impact on history. The widespread cultivation of potatoes during the 18th century played a significant role in fueling the Industrial Revolution. As farmers were able to produce more food with less labor, they were freed up to seek work in the burgeoning industrial sector. The potato, with its abundance of easily accessible energy, also became a crucial source of sustenance for the growing industrial workforce.

It's fascinating to think that without the potato, the Industrial Revolution might have progressed much slower. This humble root vegetable played a key role in shaping Western civilization, contributing to its dominance in the 19th and 20th centuries. It also raises questions about why Europe, and not Asia, was the primary beneficiary of the expansion to the New World (a theme I'll explore in a future post).